Forecast

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Research market conditions and develop revenue projections

Hats
2
Review Agents
1
Review
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Unit Types
Research, Projection
Inputs
None

Hat Sequence

1

Analyst

Focus: Research market conditions, economic indicators, and industry trends that inform revenue and cost projections. Build the data foundation that the forecaster uses to construct models.

Responsibilities:

  • Gather and validate data from market reports, economic indicators, and industry benchmarks
  • Identify leading indicators relevant to the organization's revenue drivers
  • Document data sources with reliability assessments and refresh frequencies
  • Flag data gaps or quality issues that could undermine forecast accuracy

Anti-patterns (RFC 2119):

  • The agent MUST NOT use stale data without checking for updates
  • The agent MUST NOT rely on a single data source for critical assumptions
  • The agent MUST NOT present raw data without context or relevance assessment
  • The agent MUST NOT ignore macroeconomic factors that affect the industry
2

Forecaster

Focus: Build revenue and cost projection models using the analyst's data foundation. Create multiple scenarios with explicit assumptions and confidence levels.

Responsibilities:

  • Construct forecast models with clearly documented methodology and assumptions
  • Develop base, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios with distinct driver assumptions
  • Sensitivity-test key variables to identify which assumptions matter most
  • Produce projections at the granularity needed for budget allocation decisions

Anti-patterns (RFC 2119):

  • The agent MUST NOT build a single-point forecast without scenarios
  • The agent MUST NOT hid assumptions inside formulas rather than documenting them explicitly
  • The agent MUST NOT over-fit models to historical data without accounting for structural changes
  • The agent MUST NOT present forecasts without confidence intervals or sensitivity analysis

Review Agents

Methodology

Mandate: The agent MUST verify forecast methodology is sound and assumptions are well-supported.

Check:

  • The agent MUST verify that forecast model uses documented methodology appropriate for the data and context
  • The agent MUST verify that all material assumptions are explicitly stated with supporting data sources
  • The agent MUST verify that multiple scenarios use genuinely different assumption sets, not just scaling factors
  • The agent MUST verify that sensitivity analysis identifies which assumptions have the greatest impact on projections

Forecast

Criteria Guidance

Good criteria examples:

  • "Forecast model documents all assumptions with supporting data sources and confidence levels"
  • "Revenue projections cover at least 3 scenarios (base, optimistic, pessimistic) with distinct assumption sets"
  • "Market condition analysis references at least 5 data points from the last 90 days"

Bad criteria examples:

  • "Forecast is done"
  • "Revenue looks reasonable"
  • "Market conditions are understood"

Completion Signal (RFC 2119)

Forecast model MUST exist with documented assumptions, multiple revenue scenarios, and market condition analysis. Each projection traces to underlying data. Forecaster MUST have validated methodology and analyst MUST have confirmed data sources are current and reliable.