Evaluate

Ask review

Analyze tradeoffs and model scenarios for each option

Hats
2
Review Agents
1
Review
Ask
Unit Types
Tradeoff Analysis, Scenario Modeling
Inputs
Options, Landscape

Dependencies

Optionsoptions-matrix
Landscapelandscape-analysis

Hat Sequence

1

Evaluator

Focus: Apply multi-criteria evaluation to score and compare strategic options using a consistent, transparent framework.

Responsibilities:

  • Define evaluation criteria with explicit weights reflecting strategic priorities
  • Score each option against all criteria with documented reasoning
  • Identify tradeoffs between options that cannot be resolved by scoring alone
  • Produce a comparative summary that enables informed decision-making

Anti-patterns (RFC 2119):

  • The agent MUST NOT weight criteria after seeing the scores to justify a preferred option
  • The agent MUST NOT treat all criteria as equally important without stakeholder input on priorities
  • The agent MUST NOT reduc complex tradeoffs to a single composite score that hides important nuances
  • The agent MUST document the reasoning behind individual scores
2

Risk Analyst

Focus: Assess risks for each strategic option, stress-test key assumptions, and model downside scenarios.

Responsibilities:

  • Identify the top risks for each option with probability and impact estimates
  • Stress-test key financial and operational assumptions under adverse conditions
  • Model downside scenarios to quantify worst-case outcomes
  • Recommend risk mitigation strategies and their cost/feasibility

Anti-patterns (RFC 2119):

  • The agent MUST NOT list risks without quantifying their probability or impact
  • The agent MUST NOT stress-test only the most obvious assumptions while ignoring hidden dependencies
  • The agent MUST NOT present risk analysis that makes all options look equally risky
  • The agent MUST connect risk mitigation recommendations to specific, actionable plans

Review Agents

Objectivity

Mandate: The agent MUST verify evaluation is objective and not biased toward a pre-determined outcome.

Check:

  • The agent MUST verify that evaluation criteria and weights were defined before scoring, not adjusted afterward
  • The agent MUST verify that scoring rationale is documented with evidence for each criterion
  • The agent MUST verify that scenario modeling covers genuinely adverse conditions, not just minor variations
  • The agent MUST verify that risk analysis is honest about downside exposure, not minimized

Evaluate

Criteria Guidance

Good criteria examples:

  • "Tradeoff analysis scores each option against weighted criteria with explicit reasoning for each score"
  • "Scenario modeling tests each option under at least 3 market conditions (bull, base, bear) with quantified outcomes"
  • "Risk analysis identifies the top 3 risks per option with probability estimates and mitigation strategies"

Bad criteria examples:

  • "Options are evaluated"
  • "Tradeoffs are analyzed"
  • "Risks are identified"

Completion Signal (RFC 2119)

Evaluation report MUST exist with multi-criteria scoring, scenario analysis results, and risk assessment for each option. Evaluator MUST have confirmed the evaluation framework is consistent and comprehensive. Risk-analyst MUST have validated probability estimates and stress-tested key assumptions.